92nd PGA Championship Preview

Golf Betting Lines

08/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year's PGA Championship at Whistling Straits is historic.

Ladies and gentlemen, for the first time since 1997, it's impossible to realistically see Tiger Woods contending for a major championship.

You know how some people just unilaterally take Tiger whenever the prop bet is Tiger versus the field? I know one of them. Johnnie Pie is his name and so I asked if he would take Woods against the field for the PGA?

"No way," was the text reply.

There we have it. "No way."

Woods' game is in tatters the likes of which we've never seen. We have no clue where his ball is going, but worse, neither does Woods. Hank Haney is no longer a factor. He's off with Rush Limbaugh on the Golf Channel talking about clubhead speed and capital gains.

The true tale of Woods' woes manifested itself at last week's Bridgestone Invitational. He's won that championship seven times and what transpired had to be the most discouraging professional week of his career.

Woods' 78th-place finish was his worst as a professional since the 1996 Greater Milwaukee Open. That was his first professional start, by the way. Woods' 18-over par was his worst score in relation to par as a pro.

This is a tournament he won seven times, remember.

What made the performance all the more troublesome was that Woods appeared to be uninterested at times. On Saturday, Woods hit some shots without taking so much as practice swing. He'd walk right into a bunker, hit it, hand the club to caddie Stevie Williams and move on to the green.

On Sunday, his tee shot barely sailed right en route to hitting a spectator in the mouth before Woods started walking after it. He tried to reach the 16th green in two, which Nick Faldo called on Sunday "a suicide shot." Woods never used to do that.

Yes, Woods has had to endure personal problems all year and constant questions from the media. Don't do the crime if you can't do the time. Woods brought everything on himself and he has to endure it.

No one knew exactly what to expect from Woods on the golf course, but no one could have reasonably suspected Woods would actually regress through the schedule.

Some, like The Sportsbook Betting Lines's own Roger Farrell, believed Woods would gain freedom by just playing golf now that his sordid secrets were out in the open. Golf could be the sanctuary, but that theory appears to have been debunked with prejudice.

Remember that Woods' 2010 season started with actual promise. He tied for fourth at the Masters and the U.S. Open. Sure, he had a missed cut and a withdrawal in between, but Woods had a pair of top-fives in majors, and that's nothing to sneeze at.

But, as colleague Gerard Gallagher pointed out, those scores appear to be the anomaly. Woods didn't break 70 at the AT&T National. He shot a 67 at St. Andrews, then didn't break 72. Woods is just nowhere with his game right now.

That has to terrify Woods a little. He's had some slowish periods in his career, but nothing remotely close to this. Woods has no swing coach to fix things and who knows what the status of his personal life is.

Woods is completely lost in the game of golf for the first time ever. Fixing it at the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits is not a rosy proposition, so it's tough to think he has any reasonable chance.

At least Woods was able to hold on to the No. 1 world ranking, although through very little fault of his own. He tied for 78th. Had Phil Mickelson shown anything on Sunday, Lefty would be No. 1 this week.

With Woods already on a plane to Wisconsin, Mickelson needed a fourth or better to finally be recognized statistically as the game's best. He was tied for 10th at the start of the final round, but a front-nine 41 meant another week at No. 2.

Mickelson won this year's Masters and hasn't done much of anything else. He contended at the U.S. Open, but faltered on Sunday and hasn't really flirted with the top of the leaderboard since.

Ernie Els is in a great spot. He's a two-time winner this year on the PGA Tour and leads the FedEx Cup points list. Els' 64 on Saturday in Akron showed his mid-season mini-rut was a thing of the past.

Luke Donald has put together a season almost as good as anyone this year. Steve Stricker and Jim Furyk are both multiple winners on the PGA Tour in 2010. Justin Leonard is finally playing decent golf based on last week and was a runner-up to winner Vijay Singh at Whistling Straits in 2004.

As is the case with the PGA Championship, international teams are to be decided. Corey Pavin's automatic eight on the American Ryder Cup side will be finalized come Sunday.

Does Woods vault into the top eight and spare Pavin from the potentially embarrassing scenario where he asks Woods and Tiger says "no thank you?"

See, even the Ryder Cup questions revolve around Tiger.

This really is historic.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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