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02/01/2012 - Bolton, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arsenal extended its winless run after it was held to a 0-0 draw at Bolton in Premier League play Wednesday.
The Gunners had lost three straight league games heading into their clash against the Trotters, but a staunch Bolton defense ensured that Arsenal would not claim its first win since the turn of the new year.
Despite the deficiency in goals, neither team was devoid of scoring opportunities at the Reebok.
David N'Gog almost shocked Arsene Wenger's men in the first half after latching on to a bouncing ball in the box. N'Gog slipped past Laurent Koscielny and was one-on-one with Wojciech Szczesny, but the French winger failed to control the ball cleanly as he pushed his effort just wide of the post.
Robin van Persie came within inches of putting Arsenal in front 10 minutes from time. The Dutchman sailed a late shot toward goal over the head of goalkeeper Adam Bogdan, but it rattled the crossbar and was cleared to safety by the Bolton defense.
The Trotters had a penalty shout down the stretch when Mark Davies found himself through on goal. The midfielder was tugged by Per Mertesacker and tripped up by Szczesny, but no call was given.
The match finished scoreless, dooming Arsenal to a four-game winless run.
The Gunners slip to seventh place in the Premier League after Newcastle claimed a 2-0 win over Blackburn on Wednesday. The Magpies move into fifth place on 39 points, one point ahead of Liverpool in sixth place and two ahead of Arsenal in seventh.
Bolton remains one spot above the relegation zone, but moves two points clear of 18th place following Blackburn's loss to Newcastle. The Trotters sit fourth from bottom on 20 points.
Newcastle 2, Blackburn 0
Blackburn, England - Newcastle climbed into fifth place in the Premier League after a 2-0 defeat of Blackburn at Ewood Park on Wednesday.
Scott Dann conceded an own goal in the 12th minute to put the Magpies in front. Blackburn was left to rue a missed penalty kick from David Dunn in the 44th minute as Gabriel Obertan added a second goal for Newcastle at the death to secure all three points.
The Magpies jump ahead of Arsenal and Liverpool in the EPL table and into fifth place on 39 points. Blackburn, meanwhile, remains in the relegation zone with just 18 points.
Fulham 1, West Bromwich 1
London, England - Clint Dempsey continued his good form Wednesday, but it was not enough to overturn the Baggies as Fulham and West Bromwich played to a 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage.
The American international bagged his 10th goal of the Premier League season in the 69th minute, but Somen Tchoyi scored eight minutes from time with his first goal of the season to see West Brom and Fulham split the points.
The draw sees the two clubs remain just one point apart, as the Cottagers improve to 27 points compared to 26 points from the Baggies.
Sunderland 3, Norwich City 0
Sunderland, England - Sunderland cruised to a comfortable 3-0 win over Norwich City at the Stadium of Light on Wednesday to continue its good form under Martin O'Neill.
Fraizer Campbell, Stephane Sessegnon, and an own goal from Daniel Ayala saw the Black Cats claim their sixth win from their eight matches under O'Neill.
Sunderland moved into eighth place on 30 points, one point better than Norwich City, which is tied with Everton for the 10th position in England's top flight.
Aston Villa 2, QPR 2
Birmingham, England - QPR threw away a two-goal advantage on Wednesday as Aston Villa stormed back to claim a point in a 2-2 draw at Villa Park.
New QPR signing Djibril Cisse opened the scoring in the 12th minute, a lead that was doubled in the 29th minute following an own goal from Stephen Warnock. But the Villans battled back thanks to goals from Darren Bent and Charles N'Zogbia in the 45th and 79th minutes, respectively.
QPR moves three points clear of the relegation zone on 21 points, while Villa continues its search for a place in the top half of the table as it sits in 12th place on 28 points.
<< 2012 debut for Animal Kingdom decided
Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eclipse Award winner Animal Kingdom will begin
his four-year-old campaign later this month at Tampa Bay Downs. Team Valor's .
Barry Irwin and trainer Graham Motion announced the decision in a press
release
<< NHL fines Boulton, Boll $2,500 each
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Hockey League on Wednesday fined
New Jersey Devils forward Eric Boulton and Columbus Blue Jackets forward Jared
Boll $2,500 for separate incidents.
Boulton was docked for his slash on New Yor
<< Umenyiora fined $20k for missing media session
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Giants defensive end Osi
Umenyiora was fined $20,000 for missing a mandatory 45-minute interview
session with the media on Wednesday.
Umenyiora said in a statement issued by the G
<< New record purse for Daytona 500
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Officials from Daytona International
Speedway announced Wednesday a record purse of more than $19 million for the
February 26 season-opening Daytona 500.
The purse for NASCAR's most prestigious
Inter and Palermo share points in eight-goal thriller >>
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Diego Milito scored four times for Inter Milan
while Palermo got three goals from Fabrizio Miccoli in a 4-4 draw at the San
Siro on Wednesday.
Andrea Mantovani started the scoring barrage in the 16th minu
Gronkowski misses another practice >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New England Patriots tight end Rob
Gronkowski missed another practice Wednesday because of the left ankle injury
he suffered in the AFC Championship Game.
Gronkowski has yet to practice in prepar
Ticats release RB Cobourne, two others >>
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hamilton Tiger-Cats cut running back
Avon Cobourne loose on Wednesday, along with two other players.
Cobourne helped the Montreal Alouettes to a pair of Grey Cup titles in
2009-10, and earn
Carlin named Coastal Carolina's defensive coordinator >>
Conway, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Coastal Carolina head football coach Joe
Moglia announced Wednesday that Clayton Carlin has been named the
Chanticleers' defensive coordinator.
Carlin has spent the last two seasons as defensive coordinator
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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