Cardinals to begin critical road trip with clash vs. Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a much-needed series win, the playoff-hopeful St. Louis Cardinals know they still have a lot of work to do.

St. Louis continues that uphill battle this afternoon with the opener of a three-game series at Miller Park against a Milwaukee Brewers club that has given it some trouble this year.

The Cardinals went into a three-game weekend series with first-place Cincinnati on a five-game losing streak and eight games back of the top spot in the National League Central. The Cardinals did not fall any further behind after taking two of three in the set, with Sunday's 4-2 victory shaving a game off that deficit and pulling St. Louis to within 5 1/2 games of the NL Wild Card spot as well.

Matt Holliday blasted a three-run homer in the sixth inning for St. Louis and Chris Carpenter gave up just two runs over 7 1/3 innings while striking out a season-high 11 batters.

"When you can locate pitches, especially your fastball on both sides of the plate it makes your off-speed pitches that much better," Carpenter said. "If you locate those when you're ahead in the count, you're going to get strikeouts."

Jake Westbrook draws the starting assignment for the Cardinals as he faces the Brewers for the first time since June 17, 2006. Making his first-ever appearance against the club, the then-Indians hurler got a no-decision despite giving up just one unearned run over eight innings of work.

Westbrook picked up his first win with the Cardinals on Aug. 13 after getting dealt to the club from Cleveland, but has lost three straight starts since. He gave up three runs on nine hits over seven innings of a 3-0 setback in Houston on Monday, falling to 1-3 with a 4.03 earned run average in six starts with St. Louis and 7-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts total.

The Cardinals hope that a fresh face can get them on track versus the Brewers, who have won five of the last seven meetings between the teams to even the season series at six games apiece.

Today's starter for the Brewers, Yovani Gallardo, has never beaten the Cardinals, however, having gone 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA in six lifetime outings. He gave up six runs -- one earned -- over 2 2/3 innings the last time he faced St. Louis, back on July 4.

Gallardo left that outing early due to a side injury and did not pitch again until July 22, missing out on a chance to pitch in the All-Star Game. The 24- year-old righty has not been the same since that injury, as he is 3-3 with a 7.23 ERA in eight starts after notching a 2.58 ERA in 18 games prior to the ailment.

Gallardo has lost consecutive starts and has posted a 9.97 ERA over his last four outings. He lasted just five innings in Cincinnati on Tuesday, yielding eight runs on nine hits and three walks.

"There's not much I can do about it right now. There's still September," he told Milwaukee's website after falling to 11-7 with a 3.86 ERA on the season.

The Brewers halted a five-game losing streak with Sunday's 6-2 victory over the Phillies. Prince Fielder hit a three-run homer in the first inning to become the second player in club history to notch four straight 30-homer seasons. The other was Jeromy Burnitz from 1998-2001.

Rickie Weeks added three hits, scored once and drove in a run for the Brewers, who got 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball from Randy Wolf.

"It's nice to at least go home on a positive note," Brewers manager Ken Macha said.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Marlins could start season without No. 2 starter Johnson

JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.

Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.

MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .

''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''

Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.

He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.

''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''

Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.

Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.

With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.

Additional basbeall odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.