FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group D

Basketball Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -

Country: Canada

FIBA Ranking: 19

Head Coach: Leo Rautins

Key Players: Joel Anthony, Andy Rautins

Overview: It's been sometime since Canada has made an impact on the world stage and since the departure of Steve Nash from the national program, it's been a team in transition.

Strengths: A team in the truest sense of the word, this squad is as cohesive a unit to be found in the entire tournament. The selfless play relates to the defensive end of the floor where the undersized squad has improved tremendously in its development to become a more recognizable basketball nation.

Weaknesses: Having no leader on and off the floor could raise problems when the times get tough, as who the Canadians turn to late in games remains to be seen. Though defense is high on its priorities, being undersized on the interior will be a challenge the Canucks will have to overcome.

Tournament Expectations: With the loss of Canadian veterans Carl English and Jesse Young to injury, this Canadian team will be as inexperienced as any sent to a major competition in recent memory. If pre-tournament tune ups suggest anything, this team is capable of being the second or third seed in its group at the very worst - only time will tell.

Country: France

FIBA Ranking: 15

Head Coach: Vincent Collet

Key Players: Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw

Overview: For the past decade, the basketball world has awaited the arrival of the French on the world stage as their potential seemed to be second to none. If one were to collect all the NBA players who hail from France and put them on a team, les 'Bleus' would have one of the best squads on the planet. But with the likes of Tony Parker, Joakim Noah, Mikael Pietrus, Ronny Turiaf and Rodrigue Beaubois all out for this summer's tournament, the fortunes of France hangs in the balance.

Strengths: With so many of their top talent left off this edition, the French have looked to some of its youth for help from their domestic league. That youthful vitality has proved to be the Frances' biggest strength as their athleticism and length are amongst the top in the world.

Weaknesses: With most of their top guards unavailable to play, the French will be hard pressed to find a stable point guard to man the ship. The youth at the lead guard position isn't quite up to the task of running a team and it shows, especially in half court sets where France struggles to score.

Tournament Expectations: Based on potential, this is one of the very best teams in the tournament but this has been the case for les Bleus' for almost every tournament they've entered this decade. Much like Canada, it would come as no surprise if this team grabbed a spot to join the Round of 16 or if they missed the cut entirely.

Country: Lebanon

FIBA Ranking: 24

Head Coach: Tab Baldwin

Key Players: Fadi El Khatib

Overview: Having shocked the world at the 2006 World Championship in Japan by beating Venezuela and France, the Cedar Trees will be no surprise to any team now that their name is known. And with the help of head coach Tab Baldwin, this is one of the most underrated lower seeds in the tournament.

Strengths: This is a team that plays with a lot of passion and embraces the underdog role as well as any nation in the competition. The veteran leadership coach Baldwin relies on will be a steadying force for a Lebanese side that holds a number of fresh faces.

Weaknesses: Certainly not the deepest team, the Cedar Trees will rely heavily on star player Fadi El Khatib, who is coming off an injury and won't be firing on all cylinders. The back court will be in tough as guard play is certainly not the Lebanese forte.

Tournament Expectations: The expectations for this team aren't wavering on the ridiculous as it hopes to build on its 2006 success. A likely first round exit hinges on whether or not they can manage to upset a few more teams this time around.

Country: Lithuania

FIBA Ranking: 6

Head Coach: Kestutis Kemzura

Key Players: Linas Kleiza

Overview: After a disappointing showing at EuroBasket 2009, the Lithuanian contingent remains a work in progress as new head coach has basically stuck with the squad sent to Poland last year. There also remains some unrest in the organization of Lithuanian basketball as the directing staff has all but one member.

Strengths: Having so many of the veteran players unavailable, the Lithuanians will turn to their youth for this tournament. They own a plethora of fast- faced, fun to watch, three-point shooters, highlighted by newly-signed Toronto Raptor Linas Kleiza. Filling up the net should be Lithuanians forte as their young gunners all have a knack to score.

Weaknesses: With star Lithuanian point guard Sarunas Jasikevicius opting to sit out this tournament, there's a looming hole at the lead guard for the Lithuanians. A rash of injuries to a number of the big bodies has left the team depleted up front as overcoming injuries is the biggest obstacle they'll face in the group stage.

Tournament Expectations: The future looks bleak but with the European event destined for their home land in 2011, this tournament should give an indication where Lithuanian basketball is headed. In such a mediocre group, there should be no reason why the European squad can't claim a berth to the Round of 16 and possibly onto a quarter final matchup.

Country: New Zealand

FIBA Ranking: 13

Head Coach: Nenad Vucinic

Key Players: Kirk Penney

Overview: For the better part of the decade, the Kiwis were led by former coach Tab Baldwin to impressive victories, even claiming fourth place at the 2002 World Championship. Under Baldwin's long time assistant Nenad Vucinic, the Tall Blacks have finished with three successive top-10 finishes at world events and hope this collection of wily veterans can help school the new era of New Zealand basketball.

Strengths: Offense is definitely the strong suit of the Tall Blacks as given their high-post offense along with the deadly combination in the backcourt of Penney and Phil Jones, there will be no shortage of points for the Kiwi's. Having a variety of scoring options make them one of the highest octane offensive teams in the tournament. There is a good balance between youngsters and experienced veterans on this team as the older generation has assisted the development of the youth who look to be the future of Kiwi basketball.

Weaknesses: In one word - toughness. The Tall Blacks struggle on the defensive end as they can't stop perimeter penetration very well and protect the paint sparingly. The inability to defend will cost them a shot to be an elite team as their offense is already atop the best in the world.

Tournament Expectations: The potential is there for this team to make a deep run in the tournament as they have a solid balance of youth and experience that should bode well for them. Anything less than the Round of 16 would be a disappointment, where a shot of being in the Final Eight is a true reality.

Country: Spain

FIBA Ranking: 3

Head Coach: Sergio Scariolo

Key Players: Marc Gasol, Rudy Fernandez, Juan-Carlos Navarro

Overview: The defending champs return to the World Championship much like they left the last edition, without its star big man, Pau Gasol, and hungry for gold. Its silver medal performance at the 2008 Olympics only feeds the hunger more as the fastest growing basketball power house hopes to add to its list of accomplishments.

Strengths: One of the most balanced teams in the world, the Spaniards bolster one of the deepest teams as they have players at every position very capable of playing at a high level. The mixture of size, talent and athleticism has created a culture of winning basketball and this rendition appears to be no different.

Weaknesses: There are very few holes in the Spanish armor but if there was one weak link it would have to be the lack of perimeter defense. In Fernandez, Navarro and Ricky Rubio, the Spaniards have a collection of talented guards, none of which being the most physical player or the most adept to staying in front of his man. They'll rely heavily on the help defense of the bigs to negate the shaky defense the guards are likely to play.

Tournament Expectations: With such a complete team, there's no reason to believe this squad doesn't have a legitimate shot of taking gold once again.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.