Giants eye first place as they continue series in Arizona

Baseball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -Runs were hard to come by in Monday's opener of a three- game series between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks, and another pitcher's duel could be in the works when the two National League West foes square off again tonight at Chase Field.

Neither team scored a run over the first 10 innings of yesterday's clash, with Nate Schierholtz's two-run triple in the top of the 11th breaking the stalemate and lifting the Giants to a 2-0 victory.

Arizona reliever Aaron Heilman (5-7) retired the first two hitters he faced in the 11th, but Aubrey Huff kept the inning alive for San Francisco with a single. Buster Posey followed with a base hit to set the stage for Schierholtz, who drove a pitch into the gap in right center to plate both runners and end the scoreless deadlock.

"I knew I had to keep it simple and stay up the middle," said Schierholtz. "[Heilman] left a changeup up and I was able to put a good swing on it. It was good to get in there and contribute."

Brian Wilson walked the leadoff man in the bottom of the 11th, but the All- Star closer set down the next three batters to record his 41st save and finish off the Giants' fifth win in their last six contests.

Monday's triumph kept San Francisco one game behind San Diego for first place in the NL West standings, and the team is now 1 1/2 back of Philadelphia for the lead in the league's wild card race after the Phillies split a doubleheader with Florida yesterday.

Following this series, the Giants will visit San Diego for four critical games beginning on Thursday.

Arizona suffered its third straight loss with Monday's result, although manager Kirk Gibson was pleased with his young team's effort.

"It was one of those kind of games, it was very tense and championship-caliber play," Gibson remarked afterward. "I loved it, but ultimately [the Giants] got the job [done]. For our team, this is what we're looking to play for every day."

Neither starting pitcher factored in the final outcome despite both performing extremely well. Arizona's Ian Kennedy yielded just two hits and struck out six over the first eight innings, while Giants youngster Madison Bumgarner fanned seven Diamondbacks and allowed five hits over 7 1/3 shutout frames.

With San Francisco sending two-time NL Cy Young Award recipient Tim Lincecum to the mound and the Diamondbacks countering with impressive rookie Barry Enright, scoring could be scarce again tonight.

Lincecum has really struggled over the second half of this season, but the 2010 All-Star was able to reclaim his usual outstanding form in last Wednesday's game against Colorado. The hard-throwing righty limited the Rockies to one run and struck out nine over eight innings to register a long- awaited 12th victory of the season.

The 26-year-old had lost five straight starts prior to Wednesday's breakthrough and posted an uncharacteristically bad 7.62 earned run average over that frustrating winless stretch. One of those setbacks came against Arizona on August 27, with Lincecum being reached for four runs and issuing four walks in six innings.

That defeat was only the second for Lincecum in seven career decisions against the Diamondbacks, and the San Francisco ace has recorded a strong 2.61 ERA over 12 starts in this series. In his most recent visit to Chase Field, he surrendered just two runs in an eight-inning no-decision on July 25.

Enright has been very consistent since joining the Arizona rotation in late June, with the 24-year-old having compiled a 6-2 record along with an outstanding 2.45 ERA over his first 12 major league starts. The right-hander enters tonight's tilt having won three consecutive assignments and outpitching some of the NL's top hurlers along the way.

After firing 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball to best Colorado and ace Ubaldo Jimenez on August 21, Enright scattered six hits over seven shutout frames to win a head-to-head matchup with Lincecum six days later. He then registered his fifth straight winning decision by holding the slumping Padres to two runs over seven innings last Wednesday at Chase Field.

Enright also opposed Lincecum in that July 25 meeting in Phoenix and received a no-decision as well after allowing two runs in six innings. The Pepperdine product has been tough at home this year, bringing a 4-2 record and a 2.64 ERA over seven Chase Field starts into tonight's game.

Monday's victory was the Giants' fifth in a row as the visitor in this series, having swept a four-game set between these clubs in Phoenix back in July. San Francisco has prevailed in nine of 13 overall bouts with the Diamondbacks this season as well.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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